Hello there,
This week’s episode is about setting up the U.S. Space Force for success now and into the future, which will inevitably reach beyond Earth orbit and into the “bluewater”. In addition to two doctrine documents, Space Force leadership is signaling that changes above the Kármán Line are on the near horizon.
“Over more than two decades, we have optimized to support post-9/11 conflicts and demands; this is not what the nation needs for the coming decades of strategic competition. Accordingly, we will conduct a major initiative over the next several months to identify and implement the changes needed to meet our pacing challenge.”
I understand that, yes, this is rhetoric. How often have we heard words like “change”, “evolve”, iterate”, or even “clean sheet of paper” in connection with the Space Force? A bajillion times I bet. Kendall, or his ghostwriters, even slipped into the email this phrase: “We cannot sustain deterrence by standing still.”
Is this just a retread of the same old stuff that keeps the Space Force cruising along on “Sempra Someday”? I’m not so sure. The Doctrine documents, this summer’s Rand Corporation proposals done at the behest of the Space Force, and now the email hinting at possible deliverables, to me, makes this feel like there may actually be some momentum here.
Further down in the email the secretary warned that an “implementation phase” will begin in January 2024. That deadline is just under four months away. In that time Kendall gave a couple of details on how this enormous amount of thankless staffing and preparatory work would be accomplished.
“This initiative will involve a comprehensive look at all aspects of how we organize, train, and equip the Air Force and Space Force.
“This will not be easy; existing habits and structures are well established, but it must be done. A centralized planning effort will be led from the combined Department of the Air Force Headquarters with support and extensive input from our Major Commands and Field Commands.
“It will conclude by January 2024 and be followed by an implementation phase.”
A day later, the Chief of Space Operations, Gen. Chance “Salty” Saltzman followed with the Space Force’s new mission statement.
My guests this week, Peter Garretson and Brent Ziarnick, are space power advocates, who believe that limiting the U.S. Space Force to the “brownwater” of Earth orbits is folly. They point to China’s ambition, its command economy, and according to a recent South China Morning Post article, its “preliminary road map for the country to build a space resources system spanning the solar system by 2100.”
If China’s behavior in South China Sea is an indicator, you can bet that this nation is also developing the technologies and military systems it believes are necessary to protect its national and commercial interests.
In this episode Garretson and Ziarnick discuss with me why they see the above mission statement and two new Space Force doctrine documents as expansive enough to inspire Guardians to think ambitiously about operations beyond the brownwater (Earth-orbits) and into the bluewater, specifically and more immediately the Cis-Lunar region.
Who’s on this week’s episode
Peter Garretson - a senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council and co-author of the book “The Next Space Race: A Blueprint for American Primacy”
Brent Ziarnick - an associate professor of Space Power at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and author of the book “Developing National Power in Space: A Theoretical Model”
Of interest
This Wednesday, September 13, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has honored me by having me moderate a panel at its 2023 Global Aerospace Summit, titled, “How Satellites are Reshaping Modern Conflict and National Security”. I will be joined by Robert Geckle, Chief Executive Officer, Airbus U.S. Space & Defense; Tom "Pumper" Nichols, Chief Product Officer & Co-Founder, True Anomaly; and Patrick Zeitouni, Chief Strategy Officer, Hawkeye 360.
The DownLink Podcast regular George Pullen will also be moderating a panel at the summit, titled, “Near-Term Investment Opportunities to Grow the Space Economy”. He will be joined by Bob Brumley, AIAA Cislunar Ecosystem Task Force Chair - Project Clarity; Peter Knickerbocker, Senior Vice President, Bank of America; and Ronald Lau, Senior Vice President of Corporate Development & Capital Programs, Space Florida.
And who would believe it?… The Times of India’s Editorial Board in its editorial “Win lunar tech race, be winners on Earth: Four podcasts about rocketry“ singled out two episodes of The DownLink Podcast. The board wrote, “The Downlink Podcast offers high-level discussions on the intersections of space, business and defence.“ The episodes are:
When I mentioned the increased activity on the moon, I wasn’t kidding. On Thursday JAXA, Japan’s space agency, launched its X-ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM), and its Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM) to the Moon for roughly $100m. JAXA President Hiroshi Yamakawa told a news conference, "The big objective of SLIM is to prove the high-accuracy landing ... to achieve 'landing where we want' on the lunar surface, rather than 'landing where we can." After taking a very fuel-efficient route, JAXA will attempt to land SLIM, also called “Moon Sniper”, in February. If the landing is successful, Japan will become the fifth nation to make it to the Moon.
If you’d like to read more “bluewater” thought and how the Space Force budget would improve with a more expansive view of protecting national interests, start with, “Bluewater and Brownwater Space Strategies and Their Budgetary Profiles”. You can follow that up with Garretson’s piece, “How and why the Pentagon is laying the groundwork for an economy on the Moon”, which The Hill published earlier this week.
Just below are links to the relevant Space Force documents related to this week’s episode.
Space Doctrine Publication (SDP) 2-0, Intelligence
Space Doctrine Publication (SDP) 3-0, Operations
Space Training and Readiness Command (STARCOM)
Ad Astra!
Laura
