Transmission #010 - What Zeroing in on “A Pacing Threat” Looks Like
The thread that runs right through the Quad, AUKUS, and the U.S. Space Force's purpose.
The Quad “Squad.” Image: Scott Morrison via Twitter
All doubts about whether the Biden Administration would succeed where two previous administrations failed - to pivot primary U.S. defense policy and posture away from conflicts in Central Asia and the Middle East to countering China - disappeared this week like gravity in low earth orbit. The “Pivot to China” is on.
This month’s AUKUS Alliance agreement, Friday’s Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Leaders Summit (the Quad), and this week’s speeches and statements coming from the civilian and military chiefs of the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Space Force together reveal the depth and breadth of the diplomatic and defense effort being focused on curbing the ambitions of Xi Jinping’s China.
Securing commercial, civil, and defense space-based assets in orbit and beyond, as well as sharing space-based technologies and improving upon or developing new ones, were threads woven into the agreement, the meeting, and the messaging.
Origin of the threads
“If anything, China has accelerated its pace of modernization, and has taken it in some disturbing directions,“ Secretary of the U.S. Air Force warned the packed audience of military and civilian defense officials, congressional staffers, and defense and aerospace industry leaders attending the Monday opening of the Air Force Association’s annual three-day Air, Space, Cyber Conference, in National Harbor, Md. He called China “a pacing threat.”
Kendall said China was increasing its nuclear arms inventory, especially siloed intercontinental ballistic missiles - which for the uninitiated means they’re damn tough if not nearly impossible for a foe to take out. He said, “Whether intended or not, China is acquiring a first-strike capability… I’m deeply concerned about the implications of China’s change in policy for nuclear stability and the potential for catastrophic mistake.”
China’s missile range, capabilities, and target list has grown from its immediate neighbors, Kendall said, “even to the potential of global strikes. Strikes from space, even.” More from the conference to follow.
The South China Morning Post reported Wednesday that Sha Zukang, China's former ambassador to the UN, told attendees gathered at a China nuclear policy conference, "The unconditional no first use is not suitable . . . unless China-US negotiations agree that neither side would use [nuclear weapons] first, or the US will no longer take any passive measures to undermine the effectiveness of China’s strategic forces.
"The strategic pressure on China is intensifying as [the US] has built new military alliances and as it increases its military presence in our neighborhood," the former senior diplomat said.
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AUKUS Alliance, not just a submarine deal
Everyone with a beachhead and a seat on the North Atlantic Council was held spellbound by the strategic and awkward Franco-Anglo-Austro-American diplomatic dust-up produced by the AUKUS nuclear submarine agreement. What followed the announcement was a U.S.-Australia minister-level commercial and defense cooperation agreement that revealed just how earnestly the new alliance would likely work to protect strategic interests in the Western Pacific region from Chinese economic coercion and aggression.
The Chinese thread surfaced in 2017 when it was revealed China was waging a cash-for-influence campaign in Australia’s local politics. Since 2019, when Australia called for greater Chinese transparency over the origins of COVID-19, China has been punishing Cannaberra with embargoes worth tens of billions in trade.
In April Australia’s Defense Minister Peter Dutton and then Special Forces Chief, Maj. Gen. Adam Findlay on separate occasions stated their opinion that the nation was ill-prepared for a likely conflict with China. For an excellent primer on the state of Australia-China relations, watch last Monday’s episode of Under Investigation (60 Minutes Australia).
It is against that backdrop that the trilateral strategic defense alliance between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. emerged. In the follow-on U.S.-Australia ministerial joint statement, issued on September 17, the two nations agreed that, “The Australian Department of Defence and the United States National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) have committed to a broad range of cooperative satellite activities that will expand Australia’s space knowledge and capabilities.” The NRO is a U.S. Department of Defense intelligence agency.
Before heading to Washington D.C. for the Quad Summit, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison recorded a video message played at the U.N. General Assembly on Friday. In it he doubled down on calling for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 and said, “The global strategic environment has rapidly changed, indeed deteriorated in many respects, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region where we live here in Australia.
“The changes we face are many, whether it’s tensions over territorial claims, there is rapid military modernization, foreign interference, cyber threats, disinformation, and indeed, economic coercion.”
The Quad Summit
U.S. President Joe Biden on Friday hosted the Australian, Indian, and Japanese heads of state in the White House East Room for the first in-person Quad Leaders Summit. While all share a common antagonist in China, it was the four nations’ joint maritime response to the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami that initially inspired defense officials and diplomats to consider how else their nations could cooperate in the Indo-Pacific Region.
At the summit Morrison, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide separately used their own words to describe the Quad as a cooperative effort to ensure the Indo-Pacific remains “free and open” - diplo-speak meaning they are concerned about “the sovereignty of nations.”
China on Thursday, the day before the Quad summit, sent 12 J-16 fighters and two nuclear-capable H-6 bombers into Taiwan's air defense zone, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense.
While it is thought that Canberra and Tokyo support expanding the Quad’s discussions to include an exploration of a joint security framework, Delhi has publicly rebuffed that notion. Nevertheless, the Quad on Friday established a space working group to focuses on norms of behavior and sharing satellite data.
“In space we will identify new collaboration opportunities and share satellite data for peaceful purposes such as monitoring climate change, disaster response, and preparedness, sustainable uses of oceans and marine resources, and on responding to challenges in shared domains. We will also consult on rules, norms, guidelines, and principles for ensuring the sustainable use of outer space,” the Quad leaders said in a joint statement late Friday.
Of note, three of the four Quad members are considered established independent space-faring nations, while Australia is an emergent one that relies on some outside assistance for its space-based activities. Australia and Japan are founding signatories to the U.S.-led Artemis Accords, an agreement on norms of behavior and property rights in space and on celestial bodies. In India, there is some support to also join that agreement.
The thread in DoD messaging and space
Earlier in the week and just outside the nation’s capital in National Harbor, Md., the Air Force’s and the Space Force’s active duty, reserve, civilian, and retired great and good were speaking from the same set of notes on China. Here is a sampling from speeches and interviews.
Secretary of the U.S. Air Force Frank Kendall - “One observation from this Cold War veteran, is that today we are not accustomed to contending with a capable peer competitor. Even our most senior military leaders have little to no experience in dealing with a peer competitor. We have had 30 years of unprecedented military superiority. And we have lost much of our muscle memory on what it means to have a well-resourced, thoughtful, and strategic opponent.”
U.S. Space Force Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond - “We’re convinced that if deterrence were to fail, we’re going to have to fight and win the battle for space superiority. That’s not going to be an easy fight. That’s a joint fight. That’s a fight that covers great distances. And that’s a fight that happens at incredible speed, 17,500 miles-an-hour just to be in the fight, to stay in the domain… Our job is to deter that conflict from happening. We do not want to get into a fight that begins or extends into space.”
U.S. Space Force Deputy Chief of Space operations Lt. Gen. Chance Saltzman: “If we focus on resiliency. If we focus on defensive capability. If we focus on making our guardians trained, skilled in tactics, maneuvering. If we focus on attribution of irresponsible behavior in space. I think all of those things collectively create a certain amount of deterrence so we don’t have to figure out exactly how we deal with a grappling spacecraft.”
Random Signals
This one almost slipped under the radar… To little fanfare over on this side of the pond, Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the United Arab Emirates Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces Mohamed bin Zayed jointly announced on September 16 their intention to create a “Partnership for the Future.” According to the joint communique, this memorandum of understanding commits the two nations' ministries of commerce and defense to cooperate in defense-related research and development, and the development of commercial space capabilities, which we all know can really be dual-use.
Billionaires in space, human rights violations, and corruption were among the agents causing “a malady of mistrust,” said the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Tuesday. Without naming names to the heads of state attending the opening of the 76th U.N. General Assembly, Guterres blasted the billionaires for “joyriding to space while millions go hungry on earth.”
Getting on-orbit for the Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared satellite constellation is likely going to blow the USSF’s 2025 launch date and $14.4b budget goals for the first five satellites, according to the Government Accountability Office in a report released Tuesday. The Next Gen OPIR system is being developed to replace the Space Based Infrared System, which detects and tracks missiles, and land-based targets. Raytheon and Lockheed Martin jointly have the contract for the first tranche.
The Space Development Agency on Monday approved L3Harris’s preliminary design plans for a new hypersonic missile warning satellite constellation. Hypersonic missiles travel faster and at lower altitudes, making them more difficult to detect and identify using current space-deployed technology. Those shortcomings shrink the time window civilians and military decision-makers have to order an intercept-kill missile launch or a counter strike.
SDA in October 2020 tapped L3Harris and SpaceX to design, develop, and produce four of the hypersonic warning satellites each. The L3Harris contract is worth $193m, while the SpaceX contract comes in at $149m. Both companies are required to deliver 12 months from now.
Astronauts have printed the first 3D objects made of lunar regolith simulant on the International Space Station, Redwire tweeted on Thursday. Redwire, a space infrastructure conglomerate that acquired space-startup Made In Space in June 2020, became a listed company on the New York Stock Exchange on September 8, with the trading symbol “RDW”. Redwire and NASA hope to use and scale the 3D printing technology on the moon to construct landing pads, foundations, roads, habitats, and habitat furnishings by using locally sourced materials - regolith.
NASA is launching its Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) to the western edge of the moon's Nobile Crater, located near the south pole, where lunar water-ice is believed to be located, the agency announced on Monday. The VIPER’s mission is to confirm the existence of water-ice deposits, which NASA hopes to use in the future to sustain a manned outpost as well as rocket fuel. The VIPER, which is costing roughly $659m to design, develop, produce and send, is scheduled to touch down on the moon in late 2023.