Hey there!
I’m starting off this message with the show notes for this week’s episode, followed by a question that popped into my head whilst considering the effects of President Donald Trump’s first salvo of executive orders on the commercial space sector.
I hope you enjoy both the episode and my line of inquiry.
What’s in this episode
While the flurry of executive orders coming from the newly installed Trump Administration is unsettling folks near and abroad, the first U.S. Space Force Chief Scientist wants us to focus on what is strategic: Avoiding technology surprise.
So here’s the problem: Currently the plans that drive technological requirements - the key technologies that the Space Force has identified that it needs and then tells the commercial sector that it wants to buy - those plans are predominantly focused on what analysts believe will be the threat to space systems two to five years from now.
But, almost any space investor will tell you, it takes years, sometimes a decade, after the demand signal is received from the Space Force, for a space company, new or established, to fully develop the desired key technology.
This week’s guest says that is a system problem that leaves the United States and its interests in the space domain vulnerable to technological surprise.
Who’s in this episode
Joel Mozer - the first United States Space Force Director of Science, Technology and Research
The Trump Executive Order That Requires The Attorney General To Target The Private Sector
Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday kicked off a policy and messaging shock-and-awe operation that continues to unfold. A few of these orders have a finite definition and clear results, like renaming a mountain or an international body of water. Many, however, will have effects that are amorphous and possibly boundless.
One such edict with potentially unexpected and far reaching consequences is Trump’s “Ending Illegal Discrimination And Restoring Merit-Based Opportunity” executive order. Much of the coverage and explanation of this order has focused on the cancellation of all government diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility programs, known colloquially as DEI; the placing government employees who implemented those programs on leave; and the requirement that civil servants report on alleged internal activities undertaken to shield DEI programs from actions taken by the incoming administration.
On Friday, an Office of Personnel Management memorandum instructed agency and department heads and acting heads to issue Reduction in Force, or RIF, notices to any employee that worked in a DEI-related office. RIFs are used prior to dismissing or demoting a government employee, usually due to a reorganization.
What is not so well understood, or reported, is how just this one executive order will affect all government contractors and subcontractors. Section 4 of the order, “Encouraging the Private Sector to End Illegal DEI Discrimination and Preferences”, states that within 120 days, the Attorney General will submit a report that contains submissions from each agency and department of, “up to nine potential civil compliance investigations of publicly traded corporations, large non-profit corporations or associations, foundations with assets of 500 million dollars or more, State and local bar and medical associations, and institutions of higher education with endowments over 1 billion dollars.”
You might ask, “How does this affect the space sector?” That is what is unclear.
In search of clues, I did a Google search using the terms “space company diversity program”. The results included an Aerospace Corporation item and a URL titled “Aerospace's Commitment to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion.”
According to the organization’s “About Us” webpage, The Aerospace Corporation is “the only federally funded research and development center (FFRDC) committed exclusively to the space enterprise.” HigherGov estimates that The Aerospace Corporation has garnered $20.6 billion in federal contracts, subcontracts, grants and subgrants since 2002.
Now when I clicked on that URL titled “Aerospace's Commitment to Diversity, Equity and Inclusion” - https://aerospace.org/article/2023-csr-report-aerospaces-commitment-diversity-equity-and-inclusion - I was redirected to a webpage titled “Commitment To Our People” - https://aerospace.org/commitment-our-people. There is no mention of diversity on that webpage.
Will that be enough to keep The Aerospace Corporation off the Attorney General’s investigation list? Maybe. But I wonder, if not The Aerospace Corporation, what about the world’s largest aerospace technical society, the American Institute Of Aeronautics And Astronautics (AIAA), which has $22.7 million in federal awards since 2002, according to HigherGov?
AIAA has a program called Rising Stars that provides “opportunities for underrepresented minority university students who have an interest in or are pursuing a degree in aerospace to attend an AIAA forum or event.” It states on the webpage that “Funding preference will be given to females, persons with disabilities, LGBTQIA+ individuals, and underrepresented ethnic and racial minorities.”
Or what about the staffing service Evona that serves the space sector, and counts Firefly, True Anomaly, York Space Systems, and Ensign-Bickford Aerospace & Defense (EBAD), all of which have defense contracts, as clients? In fact, Newsweek rated EBAD with five stars for its list of “America's Greatest Workplaces for Diversity 2024”.
At the time of the writing of this message, Saturday, January 25, 2025, Trump has signed 58 executive orders and memoranda. As it is the weekend, I have not reached out to these various space organizations to ask for their comment. So this is just the product of my inquiring mind and what was available through Google, The Wayback Machine, and HigherGov.
Meanwhile…
Where did the portrait of the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Ret. U.S. Army Gen. Mark Milley’s portrait go? You can read more about this break from tradition here in Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali’s article for Reuters, “At Pentagon, a missing portrait and fears of an upheaval”.
The Financial Times reporters Demetri Sevastopulo and Kathrin Hille broke a story detailing how intelligence officials from two western nations believe China is supplying Iran with “1,000 tonnes of sodium perchlorate, which is used to make ammonium perchlorate, the main ingredient for solid propellant for missiles,” and rockets. In their story, “Ships carrying missile propellant ingredients set to sail from China to Iran, say officials”, the shipments could provide enough fuel for “260 mid-range Iranian missiles such as the Kheibar Shekan or Haj Qassem.”
Also CNBC’s Michael Sheetz wrote in is piece, “Space stocks surge after Trump inauguration with ‘broad excitement’ about sector, analyst says“, that pure-play space stocks rose sharply the day after Trump’s inauguration. Pure-play stocks are single company’s publicly traded securities.
Often those who seek exposure to a sector, but want to temper the associated risks, will purchase shares in an exchange-traded fund or ETF. In the case of the space sector these managed funds bundle together securities from different space-related companies, some new to the exchanges with others that have an established track record of returns, to reduce the risk to the investment.
A pure play - single-company stock buy - is considered riskier and is usually the type of short-term investment made by active investors looking for a more immediate return.
And lastly, if you want to learn more about Trump’s pick to become the Department of the Air Force Undersecretary, who will be responsible for organizing, training, and equipping the U.S. Air Force and U.S. Space Force, Greg Hadley of Air And Space Force Magazine, has a solid short feature on former Space Force Lt. Col. Matthew Lohmeier, “Former Space Force Officer Tapped to Be New Air Force Undersecretary”.
Have a great week!
Ad Astra!
Laura
