Hello again,
While I apologize for not sending this note out earlier, I think the timing of this “Transmission” may actually work to your benefit. Here’s why:
This episode is about two highly anticipated Space Force documents that were released last week — the Future Operating Environment 2040 and the Objective Force 2040 — that look at what could be in store for the space domain 15 years out. Together they cover what could be the threat environment and what the Space Force needs to start building now to meet that possible future.
The reason I believe the timing of this transmission is about right is because days before I hit the send button, the Trump Administration’s Department of Defense revealed its Space Force FY 2027 budget request. While most of the granular details are still under wraps, the DOD did share some pretty stunning numbers, starting with the Space Force topline number of $71.1 billion, a 124% increase over the enacted FY 2026 budget of $31.6 billion. Other budget lines were doubled, like Space Control jumped from $0.6 billion to $1.9 billion.
Comparing what these documents say and don’t say to the Presidential Budget Request for the Space Force should reveal whether or not the administration agrees with the documents’ premises and will fund the Space Force correctly now in order to be ready five, 10, and 15 years out.
The Future Operating Environment 2040 describes the threats to U.S. interests in space out to at least the cislunar region, without really addressing what those interests might be — such as NASA’s planned human-rated lunar outpost.
“It is the right kind of strategic warning. In fact, one of the things I’m most excited about this document is that I think it truly gets the strategic threat from China. It correctly prioritizes and understands the importance of the moon, what they’re doing on space solar power, what they’re attempting to do on maneuver and counter-space.”
— Peter Garretson
The introduction to the Objective Force 2040 explains that, “It is not a rigid and unquestionable analytical product, nor is it a flawless projection of planning, programming, budgeting, and execution.” Instead it is a “North Star” or an “authoritative direction” the service branch thinks it will need to travel to succeed in its mission over the next 15 years.
These documents were written for guardians and Congress. Outside government, C-suites, entrepreneurs, investors, and technologists would do well to read them too — these documents are as much a guide to where the money, the missions, and the markets are heading as they are a blueprint for the Space Force itself.
Several questions hang over both documents:
What did they get right? And what did they leave unanswered?
How seriously does the Objective Force treat cislunar operations — and does that treatment match the threat environment described in the Future Operating Environment?
What do these documents say, or not say, about protecting commercial space assets?
And what does the Space Force’s treatment of Golden Dome tell us about the administration’s signature defense initiative?
Of note, during the press conference with Secretary of the Air Force Troy Meink, I asked the secretary about the status of Space Futures Command. Personally, I found myself confused by rumors and articles over the last nine months. The secretary said: “ there won’t be a separate Futures Command.”
Space Symposium
Space Symposium 2026 was a blast! Super busy seeing old friends and making new ones, and meeting some fans of the podcast.
In the coming weeks I will be posting the interviews I did while attending Space Symposium 2026, including with Pacôme Révillon, the CEO of Novaspace, a global consulting firm dedicated to the space sector; and Peter Krauss, the President and CEO of Terran Orbital Corporation, a manufacturer of small satellites and end-to-end satellite solutions, primarily serving defense, civil, and commercial customers.
What’s in this episode
A close read of the Future Operating Environment 2040 and the Objective Force 2040 — what the Space Force authors get right, what they miss, and what questions about the Space Force’s future remain unanswered.
Who’s in this episode
Joel Mozer — First Chief Scientist of the U.S. Space Force; strategic foresight consultant and principal of the Aurora Project on dynamic space operations
Peter Garretson — Senior Fellow in Defense Studies, American Foreign Policy Council; author of Space Shock: 18 Threats That Will Define Space Power, which was recently added to the National Security Space Institute (NSSI) Space Professional Reading List. Congratulations to Peter and co-author Rich Harrison!
Reading
“Space Force 2040: 30,000 satellites, ‘thousands’ more Guardians” — Theresa Hitchens, Breaking Defense, April 15, 2026
“NorthStar Earth & Space Announces Plans to Become Publicly Traded via Merger with Viking Acquisition Corp. I” — Press release, Northstar, April 17, 2026
“Blue Origin’s Failure May Hamstring NASA’s Moon Plans” — Kenneth Chang, New York Times, April 20, 2026
“Consumer Price Index - March 2026” — U.S. Bureau Of Labor Statistics, April 10, 2026
“Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2026 — in one chart” — Greg Iacurci and Jessica Dickler, CNBC, April 10, 2026
UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA — THE NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY v. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE — OPINION — Ruling, Paul L. Friedman, United State District Judge, United States District Court For the District Of Columbia, April 9, 2026
“The Court concludes that the defendants have failed to comply with its Order”
“The Court cannot conclude this Opinion without noting once again what this case is really about: the attempt by the Secretary of Defense to dictate the information received by the American people, to control the message so that the public hears and sees only what the Secretary and the Trump Administration want them to hear and see. The Constitution demands better. The American public demands better, too.” - Paul L. Friedman, United States District Judge
“NEW YORK TIMES COMPANY v. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE —Order — Document #54” - Order to Comply, April 9th, 2026
The Department of Defense is ordered to file a sworn declaration by April 16, 2026, detailing exactly how it has complied with the order.
“National Press Club opposes President Trump’s effort to force disclosure of confidential sources” Press release, National Press Club, April 06, 2026
Ad Astra!
Laura
