Hello,
This week’s note is short. There’s a lot happening, to be sure, but SatShow’25 is next week and I need to prepare.
Here are my highlights without the usual narrative
The tariffs are real and they’re going to hit your bottom line
As promised, President Donald Trump slapped 25% tariffs on all goods - raw materials, semi-processed, and finished products - from Canada and Mexico on March 4. Two days later, on March 6, and under tremendous pressure from business leaders, he amended his orders granting temporary relief, perhaps a month, for the auto and agriculture sectors.
Yes. The president did increase the tariff on all Chinese imports by 10%, but that could have a lesser effect on the U.S. space sector’s supply chain, as most must avoid employing Chinese products in their space systems. Plus this past December China started administering severe export restrictions on materials, such as gallium and germanium, the space sector uses.
It’s the tariffs on Canada and that country’s response that will have an outsized effect on the space sector supply chain, because not only will prices jump, Canadian-sourced critical minerals, rare earths, and not-so-rare metals, like nickel, will become scarce inside the United States. Ontario Premier Doug Ford is promising to stop nickel shipments. While many of these commodities exist in the United States, they’re right where they’ve been for thousands of years… In the ground.
Dynamic Aerostructures, which manufactures parts for SpaceX and Blue Origin, will be for sale at auction, according to bankruptcy documents filed with the US Bankruptcy Court in the District of Delaware. According to Bloomberg, “rising inventory costs as a result of inflation, and money-losing customer contracts” are to blame.
Bottom line: Costs are going to jump and timelines for delivery will move right as companies look for and compete with each other and market speculators to secure alternative sources of supplies, while seeking to renegotiate current contracts.
On the near horizon: The Trump Administration plans to impose a 25% charge on all imports of steel and aluminum on Wednesday, March 12.
Starship Explosion
It doesn’t really matter whether you use the “rapid unscheduled disassembly” or “RUD” lingo, Starship continues to explode and disrupt.
Thursday’s fiery test out of SapceX’s Star Base in Boca Chica, Texas concluded with an explosion, showering sizzling hot debris over the Caribbean and Florida. The incident forced the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to issue ground stops and to re-route planes. In all 240 flights were disrupted.
Also on Thursday, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, who oversees the FAA, asserted in a cabinet meeting that Elon Musk’s DOGE Bros were trying to lay-off air traffic controllers. Musk is SpaceX’s founder and the head of DOGE, an ambiguously authorized and highly controversial Trump Administration organization tasked with reducing the size of government. The assertion comes after recent fatal air crashes and close calls.
Athena is Dead
On Thursday, Intuitive Machines’s Nova-C class lunar lander called Athena landed on the moon… And then tipped over.
To be fair, after the landing Intuitive Machines was able to temporarily communicate with the Athena lander. It’s thought that lander went silent because it was unable to deploy its solar power arrays correctly, and therefore it ran out of electrical power.
The IM-2 mission is Intuitive Machines second attempt to land on the moon under NASA Commercial Lunar Payload Services Program. The first attempt, the IM-1 mission, was in February 2024. The Odysseus lander, also a Nova-C class craft, also achieved a soft landing, but tipped over.
There may be something to Firefly’s CEO Jason Kim’s idea about shorter is better, which I wrote about last week.
What’s in this episode
The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs and counter trade restrictions have kicked in, slapping small and medium sized space businesses with an economic shock that will be felt through the entire supply chain. There are solutions to lessen the pain from prime contractors and even the federal government if you know where to look.
Who’s in this episode
Bailey Reichelt - Founding Partner, Aegis Law, and Member of the Board of Directors, Association Of Commercial Space Professionals
Megan Moloney - Associate Director, Defense and Security, Guidehouse, and co-chair of the Space Information Sharing and Analysis Center (Space-ISAC) Supply Chain Working Group
Brian Joyal - CEO, Veridiam, Inc., a U.S.-based manufacturer providing critical components and assemblies to space sector prime contractors.
Reading/Viewing
“Intuitive Machines’ second attempt to land on the Moon also went sideways” - Eric Berger, Ars Technica, March 6, 2025 - Great piece of writing and journalism.
“Investors seek clarity on tariffs from Trump White House” - By Carolina Mandl and Suzanne McGee, Reuters, March 7, 2025
“A Timeline of the Tit-for-Tat Tariffs Between China and the U.S. Since 2017” - Simina Mistreanu, AP, February 10, 2025
“Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Proceeds with Tariffs on Imports from Canada and Mexico” - White House, March 3, 2025
“Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States, and Canada 7/1/20 Text” - Executive Office of the President
“Commerce Secretary’s Comments Raise Fears of Interference in Federal Data” - Ben Casselman and Colby Smith, New York Times, March 4, 2025
If you are attending SatShow’25, let me know. I’ll be roaming the exhibit hall looking for cool new tech and space companies.
Ad Astra!
Laura
