Hello again,
Last night, Thursday, May 28, everyone in the space community, and now those who may be considering purchasing shares in space companies like SpaceX, received a stark reminder of the risks associated with developing space infrastructure. Best laid plans can literally blow up.
Yesterday evening, a massive fireball engulfed and destroyed Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station during a static fire test of its BE-4 first stage engines. The vehicle exploded as its methane and liquid oxygen propellants ignited, destroying both the rocket and the launch erector.
Blue Origin has not determined the explosion’s exact cause. Launch Complex 36 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is Blue Origin’s only New Glenn launch pad.
Immediate considerations
In April 2025, the Space Force selected Blue Origin alongside SpaceX and United Launch Alliance as one of three providers under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 program. The Space Force awarded Blue Origin $2.4 billion for up to seven New Glenn missions carrying high-value national security payloads.
As of December 2025, New Glenn was on a four-flight certification path toward full NSSL certification, with two flights completed. A third launch followed in April 2026, though an upper stage anomaly left the payload in the wrong orbit. Whether that flight counts toward certification — and whether the four-flight requirement still stands — is now an open question in the wake of Thursday’s explosion.
The New Glenn launch system is also central to NASA’s lunar exploration plans. NASA this week, on Tuesday, May 26, designated Blue Origin's cargo-only Blue Moon Mark 1 lander as Moon Base 1, with launch on New Glenn scheduled for later this year. The crewed Blue Moon Mark 2, one of two Human Landing Systems NASA selected to ferry astronauts to the lunar surface under the Artemis program, also requires the New Glenn rocket. NASA Administrator Isaacman said the agency would assess impacts to Moon Base and Artemis programs as information becomes available.
Recent NASA announcements
While many have been poring through the SpaceX IPO prospectus, also known as an S-1, there have been a number of NASA announcements that could have profound effects.
May 26 — NASA announced new contracts for lunar rovers and uncrewed cargo landers bound for the Moon, and shared target launch timeframes for the first Moon Base infrastructure and exploration missions to the lunar South Pole region ahead of Artemis 2028 astronaut landings. Full details on all three 2026 missions and more are available in NASA’s May 26 announcement.
May 22 — NASA posted to its website the administrator’s very long letter that detailed a fast-coming agency-wide realignment — big changes.
The same day, NASA announced it will compete the contract to manage and operate the Jet Propulsion Laboratory — a contract Caltech has held since the laboratory’s founding in 1936.
“Conducting a competition for this contract enables NASA to assess the potential benefits of alternative management approaches to the FFRDC, including opportunities to enhance mission performance, innovation, and overall cost and operational efficiency, consistent with federal competition requirements.” — Cheryl Warner, News Chief, NASA Headquarters, May 22, 2026
May 20 — El Paso Matters first reported that NASA had quietly removed the members of its NASA Advisory Council, the independent body that has advised the agency for nearly 50 years. The council has not met since January 2025. To be fair, it is not all that unusual for new NASA administrators to shape the NAC.
What’s in this episode
This episode is coming to you from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Ascend conference at the Washington Hilton in Washington, D.C. It was a big week with the NASA announcements, the SpaceX IPO S-1 filing, and SpaceX’s much anticipated Starship V3 test.
“It’s a great time to be in space right now,” AIAA’s CEO Clay Mowry, told me. That's a big statement from someone who has held senior roles across government, trade associations, commercial launch, and space nonprofits. Before assuming the leadership of AIAA, he was the president of the International Astronautical Federation (IAF), the body that organizes the world’s largest annual gathering of the space community — the International Astronautical Congress (IAC).
In addition to the excitement Mowry feels, he’s also quite adamant that there are a number of issues that need to be addressed. We talked about why the same structural problems — acquisition latency, regulatory lag, demand signal instability — keep appearing on AIAA’s priority list.
“What I hear from companies is: you can do it whichever way you want, but just tell us what you’re going to do and try to stick to it for a year or two, because it’s a bumpy ride right now.” — Clay Mowry
AIAA is bidding to bring the IAC to Houston in 2029. The host city decision comes this October at IAC 2026 in Antalya, Turkey. Letters of support should be sent to:
AIAA Houston Section International Activities Group (IAG) — international@aiaahouston.org, or the
Section Chair — chair@aiaahouston.org
Snail Mail
AIAA Headquarters
Attn: IAC Host Bid Committee / Executive Leadership
12700 Sunrise Valley Drive, Suite 200
Reston, VA 20191-5807
The episode is available here and on all major podcast platforms.
Who’s in this episode
Clay Mowry — CEO, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA); immediate past president, International Astronautical Federation (IAF)
SpaceX IPO — what the S-1 actually says.
On May 22, SpaceX launched Starship Flight 12 — the first flight of the new V3 configuration — from Pad 2 at Starbase, Texas. The vehicle successfully reached space despite losing one of its six Raptor vacuum engines during ascent. Musk posted on X that the launch was “epic.”
“Epic” is a word that is being used to describe the SpaceX IPO’s proposed valuation of roughly $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion. However, many traders are not using that word to describe the prospectus, known in financial lingo as the S-1. SpaceX filed its S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Wednesday, May 20.
When a company decides to go public in the United States, the SEC requires an S-1 registration statement. This is the foundational disclosure document — a detailed, legally binding account of the company’s business, finances, risks, strategy, and governance, written for investors deciding whether to buy shares.
What the S-1 reveals is that SpaceX is now organized into three business segments: Space, which covers rockets and launch; Connectivity, which is Starlink; and AI, which includes xAI, Grok, and X, the social media platform. Investors buying shares in SPCX on June 12 will be investing in all three.
Full-year 2025, income/loss:
Space segment (rockets and launch) — Loss: $657 million
Connectivity segment (Starlink) — Profit: $4.423 billion
AI segment (xAI, Grok, and X) — Loss: $6.355 billion
Consolidated: Net loss — $2.589 billion
Two market watchers’ takes:
Scott Galloway, on the Pivot Podcast, called xAI a “cash incinerator.”
Patrick Boyle, a former hedge fund manager and professor of finance at King’s College London: “The one business that actually works is subsidizing a money-losing AI venture, while he tries to convince public market investors that the money-losing AI venture is the entire reason the company’s worth $1.75 trillion.”
The Downlink will produce an episode on June 12, the day SpaceX lists on the Nasdaq. Chris Quilty of Quilty Space, George Pullen of MilkyWayEconomy, and Lou Whiteman of the Motley Fool will join me to break down what the IPO means for the space sector.
Reading and Watching
SpaceX S-1 prospectus — SEC EDGAR, May 20, 2026
“Fight the SpaceX FOMO. You’ll Be Glad You Did” — Jonathan Levin, Bloomberg, May 28, 2026
“SpaceX’s IPO Is a Bet Gravity Doesn’t Apply to Elon Musk” — Tim Higgins, Wall Street Journal, May 24, 2026
“SpaceX S1 Reveals Governance Risks Investors Should Not Ignore” — Peter Cohan, Forbes, May 22, 2026
“SpaceX IPO: A Glimpse Into the Future of Indexing?” — Rich Lee, Traders Magazine, May 18, 2026
“SpaceX, Adding It Up — The $235 Billion Cash Gap” — Cape Fear Advisors, May 21, 2026
“SpaceX’s $28,500,000,000,000 TAM” — Cape Fear Advisors, May 22, 2026
“This one weird trick might cost your retirement fund billions” — Gary Marcus, Marcus on AI, May 22, 2026
Ad Astra! Laura
AI-GENERATED TRANSCRIPT: This text was produced using automated speech recognition. Technical terminology may contain inaccuracies. This is provided for accessibility and is not a verbatim record. Please refer to audio for the definitive version.
